Remember this Wheat post?

HERE

Well look at wheat now.  The day after this post wheat DID pull back from its close of 548.25 for two days to 534.25; a slight pull back of about 2.6%. 

But what happened after that? As I stated in my previous post, sky was the limit and did wheat futures ever shoot up, all the way up to 627, a rise of 17.4%.

But now I'm seeing a nice time to play the reverse position.

First of all, the markets are recovering, and one of the things that makes commodities such a great investment is their diversification effect, in that they have tended to move inversely or uncorrelated to equities in the past.  The markets going up is in no way a sign that so will commodities, and if anythign its pointing towards a weakening of the market; many commodities had a fairly weak day today.  Wheat is currently in heavily overbought levels, and has been sitting up there for quite some time now; not to mention volume has slowed down these past few days also.  A touch right here on my white trend line could result in a nice downside play in shorting the futures and/or buying puts. 

I'm going to indulge, so we'll see how my move pans out.

-Krames

Today in review.

Wheat pulled back slighty, /ES continued on up though slowing down its haste. 

Volume of trading on /ES was lower than the norm, only reaching 1.42MM at this current time for the day.  Being the summer, many people are on vacation and friday being the start of the weekend, I think you can attribute some of that to this.  The Relative Strength Index has slowed down its momentum and is sitting at the midway point with a rounded off top due to the almost neutral day of trading. 

Keep an eye on wheat though, a good entry may be coming up but not before a little more of a pullback.

Enjoy the weekend.

-Krames

Wheat pulling back tomorrow...

Wheat had another nice upday, but I feel like a slight pull back is still in order.  Lets take a look at the chart.

 

Volume has recently higher than the norm, showing increased interest in the market on this ag.  This, in combination with the overbought levels of 76 on the RSI, solidify my predicitions of a minor pull back to the previous levels of resistance.  After that, sky could be the limit. 

-Krames

Market making strides?

Dow  has made it past 10,000 (again) with a nearly 300 point upday, and the S&P popped up a nice 32 points giving me solid gains on my /ES position.  Seems that trendline convergence I posted here seemed to be showing somethign after all.

Now if you look at commodities at all, you would have noticed the way wheat futures have sored recently; is it past key levels? Wheats rocketing up in the recent trading days seems to have passed  it easily through points of resistance from the past 5 months, as well as a fairly long term downward trending channel. 

Is now the time to buy?  If you ask me, not quite yet.  The volume in these recent days looks to be a tad higher than the norm, and if you take a look at the RSI indicator it shows signs of overbuying.  I think we might see these wheat futures possibly rise a tad more, but fall back its previous resistance levels of 512-520.  I do think that these will as a result shift to support, and promote further uptrending for this Ag Commodity.

- Krames

A little busy

Quicksilver is golden right now; the past 7 days have been nice up days.  Tomorrow is their earnings report which could be big, and I'm already up about 25% on this position.  It HAS pushed through my upper resitance line, I believe that this security may very well soar higher as I've said in my previous posts. 

ZQK

Wheat is also moving slightly down since my post on the threat of India lifting their export ban; I have not seen any updates on this.

/ZW (wheat futures)

Playboy hasn't done too much, but it is still up about 3% since I picked it up; I think its somethign good to hold on too.

Been a little busy, I'll try to get some charts up soon

- Krames

- Krames

Friday

So lets touch on yesterday a little bit...

• The overall market.
• The Dow closed up over 120 points  +
• Unemployment stayed unchanged, rather than increase +
• On some of my recent things to watch
• Wheat: -1.74% (export ban lift decision next week)
• BEE: +14.43% (nice pop!)
• GRT: +4.88%
• CBAK: up a bit, but holding against those resistance lines. Chart below
• ZQK:  +1.37%, +14.73% since bought a few days
• GS: keeps climbing... BUT its right on the resistance line now.  Have my stop set for 170 still; been in it too long to miss it.  Chart below

                                CBAK

                                 GS

Any winners yesterday for anyone?  Have a good weekend.

- Krames

Get your wheat puts in...

India meeting to discuss lifting wheat export ban.

Wheats already pretty low, unlike a lot of the market, wheat hasn't made a recovery since the plummet of the market; a huge increase in the supply from the world's second largest producer won't do it any good either.  Supply and demand people, if this ban gets lifted this stuffs droppin' like its hot.  To make matters even worse for the price of wheat, the "wheat harvest will reach a record this year, more than forecast."  The only thing good I'd be looking for out of this is cheaper Wheaties driving up GIS revenues... short wheat, long GIS!

Just saying.


-Krames